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Thursday 18 September 2014

Scottish independence: Counting begins in referendum

The polls have closed and counting is under way in the referendum to decide whether Scotland should stay in the UK or become an independent country.

Counting will be carried out through the night, with individual results announced for each of Scotland's 32 local authority areas.

The final national result is expected after 06:30 BST (05:30 GMT) on Friday.

A YouGov on-the-day survey published shortly after polls closed suggested "No" was on 54% and "Yes" on 46%.

The survey questioned 1,828 people after they voted, together with the postal votes of 800 people, although it is not a traditional exit poll.

YouGov said its responses suggested there had been a small shift from "Yes" to "No" on polling day, and also that "No" supporters were slightly more likely to turn out to vote.

A "Yes" vote in the ballot would end the 307-year-old union between Scotland and the rest of the UK.

In other developments:

Turnout is widely predicted to top the 83.9% recorded in the 1950 general election - the highest in the UK since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1918
Police are reportedly investigating allegations of electoral fraud relating to 10 ballot papers in Glasgow
Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond tweeted: "This has been a remarkable day. Scotland's future truly is in Scotland's hands"
Blair McDougall, director of the pro-Union Better Together campaign, said he believed a "No" vote would be revealed over the course of the night
Twitter says 1.5 million tweets about the referendum have been sent in the past 48 hours

President of pollsters YouGov, Peter Kellner, said he was 99% certain that Scotland would vote to remain in the UK.

He told Sky News: "At the obvious risk of looking like a complete prat in eight hours' time, I would say it is a 99% certainty of a 'No' victory... I can't see 'No' losing this now."

Mr Kellner said his research had suggested "substantially more" people switched from "Yes" to "No" than the other way around.

SNP MSP Humza Yousaf conceded that the "Yes" campaign were the "underdogs" in the referendum, but said they relished that status.

In analysis by Brian Taylor, BBC Scotland political editor he says, the evidence from throughout Scotland is of a large, indeed a phenomenal, turnout. A series of questions arise from that.

One, will this benefit one side or the other? That depends upon differential turnout. Is one side or the other feeling more motivated, more inclined to participate?

It had been thought that the more motivated side would be Yes. It had been thought this could be worth one or two per cent in the final tally.

However, at these huge levels of interest, that may be open to challenge. It seems that the entirety of Scotland is engaged. We shall see.

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